2021 NCAA Tournament Preview & Power Ratings

The Favorites

In regards to this year’s top teams, Gonzaga and Baylor have been the cream of the crop for most of the year.  They have pretty much had the top 2 spots to themselves the entire year.  We had Gonzaga and Baylor both between a 100.5 and 102.5 power rating for a majority of the season and have had trouble distinguishing between the 2 teams.  Recently, Baylor has gone on pause for COVID 19 which has caused us to drop their ratings 2-3 pts once they returned to play. 

Michigan has made quite a leap over the course of the season. I began their rating at 88.5 and most recently had them at 97.5.  Almost a 10 pt improvement from my initial rating which means one of two things, either they have improved tremendously or I made a really bad power rating to start. 

The Field

Going through the rest of the field you see pretty equal-sized groupings of similarly rated teams throughout the remainder of the list.  Creighton has made a jump the past couple of weeks in my numbers up 2-3 pts, and Houston has held steady for the past month or so in the top 5.  

What’s interesting is when you see teams like Kentucky and how they truly stack up with the competition.  Despite an uncharacteristically poor record, you still see them flirting with the top 30 and rated right alongside teams with better records who probably would be perceived as better by most casual observers.

When you look at the mid-majors and concentrate on teams whose conference is not likely to get more than 1 bid, the first team you run into is Loyola Chicago.   Loyola Chicago is rated 24th really playing to a high number for a program like theirs.  Loyola Chicago will most likely be a team you see sharps playing on early in the NCAA tournament.

2021 College Basketball Tournament Power Ratings

With March Madness getting started in a couple of days and Selection Sunday just around the corner we at Circa Sports decided to let you know who the TOP 99 college basketball teams this year are. The power ratings to the right of each team are how we determine what the point spread should be on a given game. 

(Ratings as of 3/2/21)

 These ratings are adjusted every night and then used to open the first line in the world at Circa Sports every day by 11 am. (Learn more about our methodology here)

Hope to see you at Circa Soon.  Thanks for your business.

– Matt (@MMpact)